Market sentiment cools down, iron ore prices jump initially and then pull back [SMM Commentary]

Published: Jul 4, 2025 16:40

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Today, DCE iron ore futures jumped initially and then pulled back, maintaining a relatively strong oscillation throughout the day. The most-traded contract I2509 eventually closed at 732.5, with a daily increase of 0.62%. Traders actively sold their goods. Steel mills purchased as needed, and with the weekend approaching, inquiries decreased. The market transaction atmosphere was moderate. In the Shandong region, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were around 720-725 yuan/mt, basically stable compared to yesterday's prices. In the Tangshan region, the transaction prices of PB fines were around 735-740 yuan/mt, also basically stable compared to yesterday's prices.

Next week, the iron ore market is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. Although the push for target at quarter-end in overseas shipments will drive a continued rebound in port arrivals, increasing pressure on the supply side, the demand side remains resilient. Steel mill profits are moderate enough to support pig iron production fluctuating at highs. Coupled with the relatively small contradictions in the current industry, the price has a solid support below. In addition, market sentiment remains optimistic due to positive news, and ore prices are expected to continue their strong trend. However, close attention should be paid to potential short-term disruptions caused by policy news such as tariff negotiations.

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